The price of oil is going through one of its most turbulent phases in recent years. The combination of geopolitical tensions, OPEC decisions, and the impact of the trade war between the United States and China has created a scenario of high volatility that affects economies across the planet. For the average citizen, this translates into unpredictable changes in the cost of gasoline, heating, and ultimately, the price of many everyday products.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, has swung between $70 and $90 per barrel in recent months, reflecting market uncertainty.
What is happening with prices?
Since early 2025, the oil market has been a rollercoaster. On one hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, have maintained a policy of production cuts to support prices. On the other hand, global demand shows signs of weakness, especially from China, whose economic growth has slowed and whose crude imports have fallen. Added to this is the growing shale oil production in the United States, which puts pressure on supply.
The geopolitical factor: trade wars and sanctions
The trade war between the United States and China has added an extra layer of complexity. Mutual tariffs make trade more expensive and reduce global economic activity, which in turn lowers energy demand. Additionally, Western sanctions on Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine continue to disrupt traditional energy trade routes, forcing countries to seek alternatives and pay more for crude oil transportation and insurance.
The role of OPEC+
OPEC+ is a group of 23 oil-producing countries that coordinate their production to influence global prices. Their decisions to increase or reduce pumping have an immediate impact on markets.
Consequences for the global economy
For oil-importing countries, such as many in Europe and Asia, high crude prices mean higher inflation and pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high. In contrast, exporting countries, like those in the Persian Gulf or Venezuela, see high prices as a temporary relief for their finances, although volatility makes long-term planning difficult. Developing countries, which often lack financial reserves, are the most vulnerable to these swings.
Where are we headed?
The future of oil is marked by the energy transition, but the path is bumpy. Investments in renewable energy are growing, but they are not yet enough to replace dependence on crude oil. The International Energy Agency has warned that the world could face a supply deficit in the coming years if enough is not invested in new fields, while demand for fossil fuels, although declining in some regions, remains high in others.
Solar and wind energy are already cheaper than oil for generating electricity, but transportation and the petrochemical industry remain heavily dependent on crude.
The impact on your daily life
Beyond macroeconomic figures, the price of oil directly affects people's pockets. When crude rises, so does the cost of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. This makes transporting goods more expensive, which is passed on to the price of food, clothing, and almost any product bought in a store. Understanding these dynamics helps explain why, sometimes, money doesn't go as far without any apparent reason.
A world in transition
While governments debate how to accelerate the transition to clean energy, oil remains the king of the global energy matrix. But its reign is being challenged not only by renewables but also by geopolitical instability and changing consumption habits. The key will be how nations manage to balance immediate energy security with long-term climate commitments.