The worst drought in decades is hitting several regions of the world simultaneously. From the river basins of southern Europe to the lands of the Horn of Africa, water scarcity is no longer a future threat but a daily reality reshaping agriculture, industry and the lives of millions. Available freshwater per person has fallen by 20% in the last twenty years, according to estimates by international organizations, and projections indicate the situation will worsen without drastic measures.
More than 2 billion people live in countries experiencing severe water stress, and demand for freshwater already exceeds renewable supply in many of the world's river basins.
Drying rivers, lost harvests
In the Mediterranean, prolonged drought has reduced the flow of rivers such as the Po, Ebro and Tiber to historic lows. Farmers in Italy and Spain have seen their olive oil and cereal harvests fall by up to 40% in some areas. In North Africa, Morocco and Algeria have imposed restrictions on irrigation and urban supply. The situation is especially critical in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya are facing a fourth failed rainy season, driving up food prices and pushing entire communities into displacement.
It is not just about lack of rain. Climate change alters precipitation patterns, melts glaciers that feed rivers in Asia and Latin America, and increases evaporation from reservoirs and lakes. But scarcity also stems from unsustainable management: overexploitation of aquifers for intensive irrigation, waste in urban networks that lose up to 30% of water, and pollution from industrial and agricultural runoff aggravate a problem that is already structural.
Water conflicts, the next geopolitical frontier
Competition for water resources crosses borders. The Nile River, on which eleven countries depend, remains a source of tension between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In Asia, the Mekong's flow is reduced by Chinese dams and drought, affecting millions of farmers in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand. In Latin America, the Paraná-Plata basin has recorded historically low levels, complicating grain navigation and hydropower generation. These conflicts are not new, but the intensity of today's scarcity makes them flashpoints of instability with economic and humanitarian consequences.
Water stress
It occurs when water demand exceeds the amount available during a certain period, or when poor quality limits its use. It already affects more than 40% of the world's population and is concentrated in arid and semi-arid regions.
Technological solutions and water governance
Faced with the crisis, governments and companies are seeking alternatives. Seawater desalination is growing in countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Chile, but remains expensive and energy-intensive. Treated wastewater reuse for agricultural irrigation is gaining ground in Spain and California. On the digital front, remote sensors and artificial intelligence systems are beginning to be used to predict droughts, optimize irrigation and detect leaks in distribution networks. However, experts agree that technology is no magic wand: without governance that integrates all actors —farmers, cities, industries and ecosystems— and without investments in storage and distribution infrastructure, solutions will be insufficient.
The role of artificial intelligence in water management
Although the water crisis is a physical phenomenon, technology can help mitigate it. In recent years, several initiatives have begun using AI models to predict water availability in basins, analyze satellite images that detect changes in soil moisture, or optimize water use in irrigated crops. For example, smart irrigation systems adjust flow in real time based on sensor data and weather forecasts. However, these tools require reliable data and access to digital infrastructure, which is still scarce in the most affected regions. AI cannot create water where there is none, but it can help use it more efficiently and anticipate crises earlier.
The underlying challenge is political and economic. Water remains undervalued in many economies: prices do not reflect its real scarcity, irrigation subsidies encourage waste, and cross-border agreements are difficult to negotiate. Some countries have begun reforming their legal frameworks to prioritize human consumption and ecosystem health, but implementation is slow. At the 2025 UN Water Conference, more than 80 countries committed to doubling investment in water infrastructure by 2030, though concrete commitments remain limited.
What does this mean for the world?
Water scarcity is not an isolated problem; it is a risk multiplier affecting food production, energy generation, public health and social stability. Regions that depend on irrigated agriculture —from the Mediterranean to South Asia— will face growing tensions if they fail to adapt. At the same time, international cooperation on water could become fertile ground for diplomacy, as already occurs in some shared basins where management agreements have proven possible. Water, that resource we take for granted, is becoming the axis of 21st-century security. Managing it well is not just an environmental issue: it is a matter of survival.